What Is SEO Forecasting?
It’s the process of estimating how much traffic and revenue you can generate through search engine optimisation. Forecasting helps you set realistic goals and allocate the right resources for your SEO efforts. However, this is where many businesses, especially SMEs, run into trouble: the forecasts are often based on shaky foundations.
Most SEO consultants or agencies build these forecasts using a bottom-up approach. They take keyword search volumes, estimate potential rankings, apply click-through rates, and boom, there’s your traffic estimate. Sounds simple enough, right? Well, it’s actually riddled with issues.
The Problem With Bottom-Up SEO Forecasting
Bottom-up forecasting starts by looking at keywords. You find a term, like “shoes,” with a certain number of monthly searches. Then, you estimate how well your website will rank for that keyword and guess how many people will click on your result. From there, you calculate how many of those clicks will convert into customers.
Here’s where things get dicey. Keyword search volume data is often inaccurate. As discussed in my previous post, keyword research tools use estimation methods that can be way off. I’ve seen cases where keyword data was overestimated by ten times or underestimated just as badly. The whole thing falls apart if your forecast is based on flawed keyword data.
Imagine you’re a shoe retailer launching in the UK, and your keyword tool says there are 50,000 searches a month for “running shoes.” You build your forecast based on that, but the actual search volume is half that, or worse, the competition for that term is so fierce that you never rank in the top 10. Your forecast might predict hundreds of new customers, but you’ll get a handful in reality. That’s the risk of relying solely on a bottom-up approach.
Top-Down SEO Forecasting as a More Reliable Approach
Top-down forecasting is a better way to approach SEO forecasting, especially when launching in new markets. Instead of starting with keyword data, you begin with broader market data and drill down to more specific SEO estimates.
Example: Estimating SEO Potential for a New Market
Let’s walk through an example of launching a shoe brand in the UK:
- Start with the total population: The UK has roughly 70 million people.
- Narrow it down by your target audience. Let’s say you only sell men’s shoes. Half the population is male, so that’s 35 million potential customers.
- Account for age and other factors: If you’re targeting men between 18 and 45, that might reduce the population to 17 million.
- Consider online shopping habits: Not everyone buys shoes online. Let’s assume that 10% of men in your target group shop online for shoes, leaving you with 1.7 million potential customers.
- Estimate your market penetration: If you can capture 10% of that market, you’ll have 170,000 potential customers.
This approach gives you a clearer sense of your SEO upside. You’re working with real-world numbers, not shaky estimates from keyword tools. It may not be perfect, but it’s more grounded in reality than bottom-up forecasting alone.
Combining Bottom-Up and Top-Down for Better Accuracy
Now, I’m not saying you should entirely throw out the bottom-up approach. It can still provide valuable insights, especially when paired with a top-down forecast. Combining both methods gives you a more nuanced view of your SEO potential.
- Top-down forecasting gives you a realistic upper limit based on market size and demographics.
- Bottom-up forecasting helps you see which specific keywords and search terms can drive traffic.
The key is understanding that keyword data alone doesn’t paint the whole picture. Use it as one part of a broader forecast, but don’t rely on it exclusively.
Make SEO Forecasting Work for You
SEO forecasting can be a powerful tool, but only if you approach it the right way. For SMEs, it’s easy to get dazzled by big search volume numbers and promises of top rankings. But as we’ve seen, those numbers can be way off, and ranking at the top doesn’t guarantee traffic or sales.
The solution? Don’t rely solely on keyword data. Use a top-down approach to understand the broader market potential, then refine it with a bottom-up analysis to identify specific opportunities. This will give you a more accurate, actionable SEO forecast that helps you grow your business.